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Averages explained

Shows the average price of a given period, and helps to identify the direction of the trend.

Moving averages are an essential part of a time series analysis and are used to visualize upward and downward trends in the market in a manageable way. Through their use, short-term price fluctuations are smoothed out so that prevailing trends and possible market reversals are easier to identify.

In general, the Moving Average is a smoothing of the data, which can also be applied in relation to other indicators, such as oscillators. The Simple Moving Average can be used as follows:

  • Trend direction: If the price moves below a falling moving average, the market is in a downward trend, i.e. it is a so-called bear market. If the price moves above a rising Simple Moving Average, the market is in an uptrend and it is a bullish market.
  • Trading signals: Crossing points of price and moving average provide potential trading signals If price crosses below the Simple Moving Average, it means that an uptrend follows; it is a non-binding buy signal. When a moving average from above is crossed by price, it is the start of a downtrend and can be interpreted as a sell signal.

The more you extend the period under consideration, the more general the course of the simple moving average becomes. If you choose a smaller time window, our moving average will track the price more closely. Only the number of time units plays a role here, the period length is unimportant.

Determine trend directions and identify trading signals to buy or sell.

In contrast to the simple moving average, in which all data points used are weighted equally, with the exponential moving average all data points are assigned a different weight. Like the other moving averages, you can use the EMA to detect uptrends and downtrends. The EMA smoothes short-term price fluctuations, making it easier to spot prevailing market trends. The Exponential Moving Average can be used as follows:

  • Trend direction: When price is above a rising EMA, the market is in a Uptrend. On the other hand, if the price moves below a falling EMA, a downtrend is given.
  • Trading signals: Price and EMA crossing points trigger potential buy and sell signals. When price falls below the EMA, it can be interpreted as a sell signal. When the price rises above the EMA, it is a signal to buy.

The Exponential Moving Average is one of the most important technical indicators in stock market practice and one of the most widely used trading signals.

The MACD indicator can be used to define trend direction, strength and various buy and sell signals.

The MACD calculates the difference between two Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and displays them in the form of a line. Usually the MACD has an additional signal line (trigger). strong>.The Moving Average Convergence Divergence can be used in the following ways:

  • trend direction: If the lines of the MACD rise, this signals a Uptrend, the lines fall, this is a signal of a downtrend.
  • buy signal: Does the MACD line cross the signal line from below above, this represents a buy signal.
  • Sell signal: Does the MACD line cross the signal line from up below, this represents a sell signal.

We can also look at the strength of the trend. The further apart the two lines (MACD line and signal line) are from each other, the stronger the prevailing trend. So the lines are close together , the trend is not strong. In addition, the so-called divergences can also be used. If the MACD shows something different than the chart, something is wrong. It is quite possible that this is a first sign of a trend reversal.

Measures the volatility of an instrument and the likelihood of a trend reversal.

The Average True Range (ATR) indicator shows how much an asset's price has moved over a period of time. In other words, the indicator shows how volatile the price of the asset was. Entered in the chart, it can be seen that a high Average True Range speaks for a high volatility. A low value therefore indicates a lower price fluctuation. Low ATR values are typical for consolidation periods or at market tops. If the ATR is high, a change in trend is likely. However, the Average True Range indicator cannot determine the direction of the trend. There are basically three values that flow into the Average True Range indicator:

  • The current difference between the last low and the current high.
  • The difference between the last close and the current low.
  • The difference between the previous close and the highs relevant at the time.

The ATR indicator is a special form of displaying volatility. A curve shows the rise or fall of volatility and, unlike many other forms of calculation or indicators, price jumps are also shown and price gaps included.

Indicators explained

Measures trend strength and locates overbought and oversold situations.

The Rate of Change measures the percentage price change, based on a period x periods ago and the current price. The difference is the decisive factor. The value tells you how the current price has changed as a percentage of that x periods ago. From this you can derive how quickly or how much a price has changed.

The ROC indicator usually has x time periods between 12 and 48 days at its disposal. The following applies: the larger the x, the more accurate it is Spot a trend. Price fluctuations affect the momentum of the indicator, which can be relatively strong at the beginning, but then weakens again. This can apply to both an upward and a downward price.

Momentum measures the speed, power or strength of a price movement.

Through the continuous quantification of this momentum, that means its direction or increase or decrease, the momentum is one of the few indicators , which can indicate an imminent trend change.

The momentum of courses is often compared to throwing a ball. A ball thrown vertically into the air will initially have a very high acceleration, but this will increase continuously decreases. The force of gravity finally lets the ball fall again. Upwards and downward trends also begin with strong price movements, which, however, lose momentum again over time. This momentum of prices is now analyzed in the Momentum, where the observations relate to course direction, rate of price movement, and rate of change of rate.

The Money Flow Index is an indicator that not only takes into account the prices in the chart, but also the traded volume.

The Money Flow Index (MFI) sees itself as a kind of momentum volume indicator, measuring the strength of the volume flowing into the underlying or flows out from there.

When the underlying closes near the daily high, the Money Flow Index assumes that capital is flowing into the underlying. If the underlying closes near the daily low closes, it is accordingly assumed that capital is withdrawn from the underlying security, so it is first determined whether the underlying security has increased or decreased compared to the previous day, before multiplying it with turnover. strong> thus indicates upward trends, a falling analogue downward trends.

The Relative Strength Index is an oscillator to detect overbought and oversold situations in the market.

The RSI oscillator swings or oscillates around a center line. It moves within a scale from 0 to 100. Important values within In addition to the middle line at 50, the scale also includes the values 30 and 70. The area below 30 is referred to as the oversold area. In contrast, one speaks of an overbought situation when the RSI indicator is above the 70 mark. The RSI can be used in the following ways:

  • When the oscillator is in the overbought area, it can be used as a signal for a Short Trade
  • On the other hand, a long trade signal is generated when the oscillator in the oversold area
  • You should also pay attention to divergences (differences) between the oscillator and the price movement in the chart

The RSI indicator measures both the speed and direction of a trend by relating the ups and downs of an underlying asset over time.

The Stochastic Oscillator is an indicator that shows whether an asset's price is about to reverse. The indicator signals whether an asset is overbought or oversold.

Traders use the Stochastic Oscillator to find suitable exit points for trades before the trend changes, or to enter trades when a new trend is just beginning The Stochastic Oscillator consists of two moving average lines that move within three different zones on the chart - an overbought zone above, a neutral zone in the middle and an oversold zone below. The Stochastic Oscillator can be used as follows:

  • The overbought zone is between the values 80 and 100 of the indicator, a signal for a Short Trade is generated.
  • On the other hand, a long trade signal is generated when the oscillator in the oversold area, values between 0 and 20.
  • Crossing the moving average lines themselves also provides a signal

The stochastic oscillator is showing extreme levels. If the zone moving averages are above 80, the asset price may reverse down. If the zone moving averages are below 20, a possible reversal to the upside is imminent.

Support & Resistances explained

To determine the support and resistance zones.

As the market approaches these zones, most traders expect a price movement. Some see a chance of breaking out of the zone, others see a possibility of trend movement. Most of the time, there is a high probability that that the market could make a quick move at said support and resistance zones as many traders are considering these areas.The pivot point takes and utilizes certain price metrics such as high (high), low (low) and close (close). Key data to identify potential support and resistance levels.

  • When the prevailing market price is above the base pivot point (P), it is considered a bullish sign (BUY).
  • When the prevailing market price is below the Base Pivot Point (P), it is to be interpreted as a bearish sign (SELL).
  • Use support and resistance zones as indicators to derive an entry or exit from them.

Pivot points can be a good support for your trading to determine the current trend or to identify support or resistance in the chart.

To determine support and resistance zones.

Here the focus is more on the closing compared to the standard pivot points. With the help of these pivot points one calculates eight major levels (4 resistances and 4 supports), and each of these levels becomes multiplied by a multiplier. The idea is that every price has a natural tendency to run back and test the previous close.

Analysis & Predictions explained

The Tom Demark Sequential is a powerful tool designed to identify the exact moment of trend exhaustion and price reversal.

TD Sequential is a counter-trend tool that aims to solve the problem of multiple TA indicators that are profitable in trending markets but very poor in volatile markets TD Sequential can be used on any time frame and in any market condition.

  • The TD Sequential can be traded in any timeframe and in any traded financial instrument are used
  • It comprises two phases: The build-up phase (9-count) and the Countdown Phase (13-Count)
  • Ideal for early detection of important turning points in the market

The TD Sequential is a very useful technical analysis tool as it aims to predict the exact timing of a price reversal. However, like any other instrument, the TD Sequential should not be used in isolation. The TD Sequential should be combined with candlestick analysis, price patterns or a proven indicator.

Neural network (Long Short Term Memory) for sequence prediction

The LSTM is a method and technique to improve the performance of recurrent neural networks (RNN) and artificial intelligence. RNNs provided with LSTMs are able to adapt to long-term dependencies and earlier to remember experiences. A kind of short-term memory is created that lasts for a long time. For the time-series prediction, we use an innovative combination of an LSTM RNN and linear regression.

Determining trend directions and trend dynamics.

The most striking element of the Ichimoku Clouds is the so-called Kumo "cloud". This is the shaded area between Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B. The Kumo Cloud shows support and resistance zones. The Ichimoku Clouds can be used in the following ways:

  • If the price is above the cloud, there is a bullish trend.
  • Price below the Ichimoku cloud is a bearish trend.
  • If the chart line runs within the cloud, it shows a sideways trend that can lead to false signals.

Investors often look for a reversal or changes in future Ichimoku clouds. When Senkou range A is above range B, the cloud on the chart is green and shows a positive trend. Conversely, when A is below B, the cloud is red and it indicates a downtrend. That is, when the Senkou ranges A and B swap positions, it is a signal of a potential trend reversal.

Examines price trends and trend patterns of charts.

Technical analysis or chart analysis examines the price developments and history formations of charts, i.e. the historical price developments. The aim is to make a concrete statement about the future price development of the underlying. During the analysis Fundamental data is completely ignored. The interest here is in typical price formations, support and resistance in the course of the price development. The end goal is to find the optimal time to buy or sell.

Price prediction using statistics

Time series forecast models are models capable of predicting future values based on previously observed values. Time series forecasts are often used for transient data. Non-stationary data are referred to as data whose statistical properties , e.g. mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time. Instead, these metrics vary over time. For predicting price development, we use statistical autoregressive models. The autoregressive model states that the output variable varies linearly from its own previous values and from a stochastic term (an imperfectly predictable term).

Prediction Model for Crypto Market Cap

The Global Economy Crypto Ratio (GECR), is a model for calculating the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies in relation to (world) financial economy data. This algorithm was developed and used by Data Metrics UG in 2021 for calculating the ratio among other things, current unemployment figures (US & EU), central bank interest rates (FED & ECB), global inflation figures and some other data.

Crypto Price Prediction Model

The Global Economy Crypto Ratio (GECR) price prediction is a specialization of the GECR model. The basic algorithm is based on the GECR model and extends the calculation with functions for the prediction of individual cryptocurrencies. This algorithm was developed by Data Metrics UG in 2021 and uses, among other things, current unemployment figures (US & EU), central bank interest rates (FED & ECB), global inflation figures and some other data to calculate the ratio.

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